Methodology
What is this?
Jin.xyz is a free, public dashboard that answers one question: "How much trouble is the world in right now?" We track 13 macro and geopolitical metrics to compute a single composite score — the Jin Turmoil Index.
Jin Turmoil Index (0-100)
Each weighted metric is normalized to a z-score against its recent history. The weighted average z-score is then mapped through a sigmoid function to produce a 0-100 score.
Weights
All Metrics
Safe-haven asset. Rises during geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, and loss of confidence in fiat currencies.
Global oil benchmark. Spikes signal supply disruptions from conflicts, sanctions, or OPEC actions.
US oil benchmark. Reflects North American energy market stress and global demand expectations.
The "fear gauge." Measures expected S&P 500 volatility. Above 20 = elevated fear. Above 30 = panic.
Dollar strength vs major currencies. Rises during flight-to-safety or US monetary tightening.
Benchmark long-term rate. Rising yields signal inflation expectations or reduced demand for safe assets.
Reflects near-term Fed rate expectations. Rapid moves signal policy uncertainty.
Negative = inverted yield curve = recession signal. The most reliable recession predictor in history.
Market's inflation expectation over 5 years. Rising breakevens signal inflation concerns.
Gold barrels per ounce. High ratio = fear dominates growth. Spikes during recessions and crises.
Credit spread between junk bonds and treasuries. Widening = rising default risk and financial stress.
Difference between interbank and T-bill rates. Rising = banks don't trust each other. Caught 2008 early.
Caldara-Iacoviello index measuring geopolitical threats from news articles. Baseline ~100, spikes during wars.